Here’s Why It’s Possible But Not Likely

  • Some government and business officials are expressing hope that a vaccine against COVID-19 could be ready as early as January.
  • Experts say that goal is quite optimistic given the testing, manufacturing, and distribution that usually accompanies a new vaccine.
  • They do note that the genome sequencing for the new coronavirus has been done and a number of companies are doing research on a vaccine now.
  • They also note that some companies have agreed to begin manufacturing before clinical trials are completed.

The timeline to develop a safe, effective vaccine to fight a virus is typically counted in years — or even decades.

But with the COVID-19 pandemic affecting millions around the world and killing hundreds of thousands of people, the race is on to produce a vaccine faster than ever before.

President Donald Trump has said a vaccine could be available by January, which would be an unprecedented development cycle.

But how realistic is that?

Experts say the goal is possible — but not likely.

Several companies and institutions are now doing research on a COVID-19 vaccine. How quickly they can develop the vaccine will depend on how clinical trials go. Getty Images

“This is a highly ambitious goal and, although a possibility, it far exceeds any vaccine development timeline in the past,” Dr. Larry S. Schlesinger, an infectious disease specialist and the chief executive officer and president of the Texas Biomedical Research Institute, told Healthline.

“Several steps done in parallel can cut some time (e.g., starting manufacturing vaccines during early clinical studies),” he said, “but the fundamental steps that need to be taken through clinical trials and animal studies take time and cannot be short circuited when working to create a safe and effective vaccine that will be used worldwide in different types of people of different ages.”

Timeline of an accelerated vaccine

There are a few factors working in favor of the possibility that we could have a COVID-19 vaccine sooner rather than later, even though experts are quick to note that the previously cited 12 to 18 month time frame would be the historical fast track.

The first is that while vaccines for other coronaviruses, including SARS and MERS, were never finally developed, the research done into understanding these viruses helped create the platform from which scientists could begin to understand COVID-19.

For instance, it took 4 months to sequence the genome for SARS in 2003. It took less than a week for researchers in China to sequence COVID-19 in early January, the South China Morning Post reported.

Another factor is that there are nearly a dozen COVID-19 vaccines in development around the world.

Of these, four or five look promising, with two set for large-scale testing by July, according to Francis Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health.

The more teams there are working on vaccines with varied approaches worldwide, the greater likelihood one of them is successful.

“It’s not just one scientific concept that’s being pursued. All roads lead to Rome and there are a number of different roads being pursued,” said Dr. William Schaffner, a professor of preventive medicine in the Department of Health Policy and professor of medicine in the Division of Infectious Diseases at the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine in Tennessee.

“The best result is that we get several different vaccines out there, all of which work. The worst is that none of them work. But probably we will be in the middle somewhere,” he said.

In difficult times, you need to be able to turn to experts who understand and can help strengthen your mental well-being. We’re here for you. READ MORE

Manufacturing early

Manufacturing capacity is another important aspect of how teams are approaching COVID-19 vaccination.

Typically, it would be a financial gamble to put a not-fully-tested vaccine into production. If it doesn’t work or is proven unsafe in clinical trials, the newly manufactured stock is useless and any investment is lost.

But with COVID-19, governments and manufacturers working in concert have decided that it’s worth producing a potentially unusable product if the vaccine comes to market more quickly.

That’s a large shortcut in typical vaccine development because it bucks a profit-and-loss equation in favor of the common good.

“Under conventional circumstances, you start the manufacturing process after it gets licensed [by the Food and Drug Administration],” Schaffner told Healthline. “But what’s happening here is that the United States government is making or will make an investment in actually starting to produce the vaccine in quantity before the final effectiveness trial is finished.”

“In order to help people early, you’re putting the money on what you think is the fast horse,” Schaffner said. “If the vaccine doesn’t work, then you have to throw all that vaccine out, you’ve wasted all that money, but the thought is, it’s only money. Let’s get this vaccine done because we can save lives.”

Finally, in addition to signing up volunteers early for regular vaccine trials, some companies are lining up “challenge trials,” an ethically controversial program in which human volunteers agree to be willingly exposed to the virus and risk injury to test the effectiveness of a vaccine.

“Challenging volunteers with this live virus risks inducing severe disease and possibly even death. However, we argue that such studies, by accelerating vaccine evaluation, could reduce the global burden of coronavirus-related mortality and morbidity,” noted researchers in the Journal of Infectious Diseases.

We’ll email you once a day as our news team publishes new and updated information about the novel coronavirus, including case counts and treatment information.

Promising early results 

So far, there have been some promising early results and optimistic claims.

A clinical trial currently ongoing at Oxford University in the United Kingdom promises 30 million doses of the vaccine by September if human trials are successful.

An animal trial — a collaboration between the National Institutes of Health and Oxford University — of a different vaccine tested in macaque monkeys appears to have protected the apes against COVID-19, paving the way for a human clinical trial.

But perhaps the biggest headline in recent weeks has come from the drug company Moderna, whose COVID-19 vaccine reportedly produced antibodies in 45 participants.

Those antibodies could offer protection against the virus, although it’s too early to tell whether this treatment offers the protection of a fully tested vaccine.

Still no guarantees

Some experts have thrown cold water on Moderna’s announcement, noting that the company has withheld key information needed to interpret that data correctly, including the ages of the participants and the results of other patients in the study, according to STAT News.

Of note, the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, which partnered with Moderna on the vaccine and created the prototype, has remained mum.

That example highlights a gap between what many want — a speedy, effective vaccine — and the cold realities of vaccine development.

“There’s a saying in research that there are a thousand ways to do an experiment wrong and that’s especially true in clinical research,” Dr. Henry I. Miller, MS, a senior fellow at the Pacific Research Institute, told Healthline.

“For one thing, the vaccine candidates might not actually work, or they might increase the virulence of a post-vaccination infection. Or the immunity could be too transient to justify vaccinating three billion people,” he said.

And those are just a few of the factors that could halt or inhibit successful development.

“There is a likelihood that the lead vaccines work in some people with some level of protection, the so-called prototype vaccines, but will not be optimized,” Schlesinger said. “This will slow the timetable to further develop the right dosing, route of administration, and knowledge regarding the timing of so-called booster shots that will be necessary for a sustained effect of the vaccine.”

“Based on the history of making vaccines, there are often stumbling blocks regarding safety and efficacy that markedly slow down the process,” he added.

In short: Stay optimistic, but be prepared to settle in for the long-haul.

2 thoughts on “A COVID-19 Vaccine by January?”
  1. 1st before this is given to the PUBLIC,,, give it to all of Congress people ALL!
    Give it 1st to the CITY COUNCIL and police and fire fighters!
    Give it to the Governor, and ALL Louisiana politicians and the State Police !
    GIVE it 1st to all the People at the IRS!
    Give it 1st to all the Employee people at the Social Security and Food Stamp !
    Give it 1st to the Louisiana State Police.
    Give it to all the CIA, FBI, NSA FEMA employees 1st.
    Give it to the ALL the National Guard and Navy and Maries and Air Force.
    THEN wait a year and see whos been damaged by the stuff
    THATS what I call a TRUE study of any VACCINE!
    I smell a scam, a scheme, deception and guile, snookers and bamboozled Vague and AMBIGUOUS language all Unverified, which exposes people to be depopulated by the millions.
    I smell a gold medal scam.
    2020 july 11

  2. Can they touch us? Why we have no fear…

    LBRC- In 2020, “The Gig is up” after 400 years of Deception”! Though Evil controls “The Air Waves” still, and “All” manner of Negroes/others- Politicians, Apostate Preachers, Liars and Deceivers- “Fill” and have easy access to Air Waves? “Nothing is more Powerful than a Prophesy whose time has come”, IT IS TIME, therefore-

    1. Every dirty and Filthy house (Including Bodies) and according to The Book of Enoch Calendar, Spring Cleaning has begun. Covid compels Filthy to wash, lots still refuse! 

    a. Liars are exposed for who and what they are.

    b. Murderers perceive impunity, but just like when Demons asked “The Son of Man”? Why do you come to persecute us before our time?” 2020 Liars, Thieves and murderers still believe they mock, but for them and suddenly- Condemnation “Across a Great Gulf Fixed”! When you believe yourself to mock The Most High? You’ve been given over to your own Reprobate mind, no longer on your side is time”!!! 

    2. As with Noah, even as it began to rain, they believed not still! In 2020, a virus as small as “2 Microns” has shut down an “Entire” Planet!!! Evil says no and not so, now desiring to sacrifice children. The Most High has protected them! Earthquakes are in “Diverse” places! Covid- 19 is De Facto Covid- 20! Up is down and down is up, right is left and left is right. They value lies over Truth! The Glory of so- called men is “their” long hair, not their woman! The Lost Proclaim Utter Ignorance, then say- “I do not know Him”! Their bitter lessons will last for Eternity…

    3. The “Black Dot” says- “Evil takes the lowest essence of our Experiences and give it Maximum  Exposure”! Truth has to be pursued! When one is hungry- The slothful will eat whatever and even cannibalize! The diligent is determined and guided because The Most High does not provide stones in place of bread or a snake in lieu of safety! Liars, Deceivers and Murderers believe their insincere and un-repented deeds to be buried, though the wind and rains of time, especially after 400 yrs., have revealed them and washed clearly to be seen of all!  

    a. You only fool self now! The Most High sent Simon The Prophet! Evil sent Simon the magician. Both Simons believed in “who sent ‘Dem”! Each placed their Faith in ‘Dat. Simon The Magician attempted flight from above a High Tower and you know the rest of the story. “Whenever you put your Faith in a lie, deception, you have abandoned your only Hope”! 

    b. 2020 is “The Beginning of your Sorrows”! Eyes have not seen and neither can it be imagined as your cost, you have not counted it! “YOU WILL REAP”! 

    btw- When the soldiers came for The Son of Man to have Him Murdered, after He had been betrayed by one closest- Peter drew his sword, however- The Son of Man said, “Let them take me”/Paraphrased! Is He dead in 2020? How is 2020 different? 

    a. Law in America says? There shall be no “Double Jeopardy” in (l)aw. 

    b. Christ could only be Murdered once! The Most High said- “Touch not my Anointed”! They will come for us again in 2020, never realizing we have already died once via The Murder of The Son of Man! Evil still desires to mock and (m)urder us. Fools have stored up what they think is (T)reassure. Suddenly!!! Their souls will be lost for Eternity! Fools test His Select, expected, while they sleep or during a Feast! 

    Abba Father, reward The Fool like Rain on The Heads of The Just and unjust…

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.