“The Illusion Of Information Adequacy”
Opinion by Dr. Russell Moul
Ever had an argument where you felt like you were right until you realized there was loads you did not know? Psychologists have now coined a new form of bias that explains why we do this.
Understanding the Illusion of Information Adequacy
How we respond to arguments or opinions that differ from our own can have serious implications, whether it’s a tiff between a friend or a family member, or a stubborn dispute with a colleague at work. We’ve probably all had instances where everyone involved thinks they’re right and things just don’t go anywhere. According to a new psychology study, this situation can be caused by a newly coined bias known as “the illusion of information adequacy”, where people tend to assume they have all the information they need to take a position or make an argument, even when they don’t.
The Psychological Roots of Overconfidence
This failure results in people navigating their social worlds with confidence assuming they have all the information they need, forming opinions, and reinforcing values and behaviors without questioning how much they don’t know.
Can People Overcome Their Implicit Biases?
“For example,” the team explain, “many drivers have pulled up behind a first car at a stop sign only to get annoyed when that car fails to proceed when traffic lulls at the intersection. Drivers of these second cars may assume they possess ample information to justify honking. Yet, as soon as a mother pushing her stroller across the intersection emerges from beyond their field of vision, it becomes clear that they lacked crucial information which the first driver possessed.”
The team found that most people in groups one and two – pro-merging and pro-separate – believed they had sufficient information to make a decision about the school’s future. In contrast, only around 55 percent of the control group believed the school should merge. Those who had half the information also had more confidence that other people would make the same recommendations as them.
The Impact of Missing Perspectives on Decision-Making
“[T]his study provides convergent evidence that people presume that they possess adequate information – even when they lack half the relevant information or be missing an important point of view. Furthermore, they assume a moderately high level of competence to make a fair, careful evaluation of the information in reaching their decisions,” the team explained.
Interestingly, the research also showed that some participants were willing to change their recommendations once they were aware of the other half of the argument. Once these people were given the rest of the arguments, the results were comparable to those expressed by the control group, with around 55 percent favoring merging and 45 percent staying.
Bridging Divides with Shared Information
“Contrary to our expectations, although most of the treatment participants who ultimately read the second article and received the full array of information did stick to their original recommendation, the overall final recommendations from those groups became indistinguishable from the control group.”
The results show that sharing a pool of information may lead to greater agreement. It also shows that the illusion of information adequacy can be overcome by a certain level of self-awareness.
“Although people may not know what they do not know, perhaps there is wisdom in assuming that some relevant information is missing”, the team conclude. “In a world of prodigious polarization and dubious information, this humility – and corresponding curiosity about what information is lacking – may help us better take the perspective of others before we pass judgment on them.”