The Season Turns, But the Lead Holds

Finally, it’s here. The moment you’ve been waiting for. September. Post Labor Day. You know what that means. It’s time for the gloves to come off, for the race to get real, and for the political tides to turn a candidate’s runaway lead into a slugfest to the finish. It’s been a tried and true trajectory of so many mayoral races. So there was no reason to think that this election would be any different.

Polls and Money Tell the Story

And then the latest poll and campaign finance reports came out. Tradition be damned was the conclusion. Time may have passed. The season has begun to change. But Helena Moreno’s apparent death grip on the mayoral race hasn’t appeared to hold steady.

Let the latest poll tell it, Moreno now has 51% of the vote, and $1.4 million in the bank to go along with it. She reported a little under a half million in donations this cycle, which is about what she’s been averaging, financial proof that her support is steady. Then she got endorsements from D.A. Jason Williams, and former U.S. Congressman Cedric Richmond.

Duplessis Raises More Money, But Thomas Shoots Up in Polling

State Senator Royce Duplessis actually led the way in fundraising this cycle. He brought in a little over a half million dollars. That did him no good in the polls though. His foray into second place lasted for one poll, making it a true snapshot in time. You would’ve thought he might’ve gotten a sympathetic bump in support after Mama D’s son harassed him in church. But nope. That did not happen.

Councilman Oliver Thomas moved back into second. He polled in the teens, which is what he’s been averaging. But he only pulled in $115,000. That might not be as alarming as it seems though. Thomas is already well known, and seems to be basing his campaign more about getting out in the streets and talking to people instead of chasing donations and endorsements.

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Polling Doubts, But No Free Pass

There’s been a lot of talk about the legitimacy of these polls, more so than any recent mayoral election.In the last three elections, pollsters surveyed only 600 people on average, which makes the results ripe for misrepresentation. But can Thomas and Duplessis afford to bank on that? Probably not.

Both have spent most of this election being a little too polite. They’ve let Moreno establish herself as the clean-cut, responsible candidate people are looking for post-Cantrell. If there’s going to be a run-off, then somebody needs to knock her off her pristine pedestal.

The Gloves Stay On—For Now

Thomas threw shade at the Richmond and Williams endorsements. Duplessis went all Kendrick Lamar (she’s not like us) and blamed her for the beef between the mayor and Council. But those were more pet slaps than gloves off punches.

Morrell’s Shadow on the Race

The problem has been Council President J.P. Morrell. If Moreno wins the election, then she’ll owe Morrell a big thank you. Since he’s taken his turn as Council President, Morrell has established himself as the Council’s Cantrell gadfly. If there’s a tiff with Teedy, then he’s the face in front of it. We’ve seen it in everything from trash contracts to the travel budget.

This has allowed Moreno to hang back and avoid being labeled as the Council Karen who’s attacking the city’s black mayor. That’s something she couldn’t afford when it comes to black support.

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