Poll Data Shows Woodfork’s Lead Shrinking in the Orleans Parish Sheriff’s Race
The 2025 Orleans Parish Sheriff’s Race has tightened dramatically. What once looked like a coronation for Michelle Woodfork now looks like a fight heading toward a runoff. Polling data from UNO and Fox 8 shows a clear shift.
Woodfork’s commanding lead has slipped just enough to matter. In the UNO Survey Research Center poll, Woodfork sits at 43 percent, down four points from earlier polling. Susan Hutson now holds 14 percent, a four-point gain. Edwin Shorty, despite his flurry of attack ads, rose just one point to 10 percent.
The Fox 8/Mason-Dixon poll from early September mirrored that trend: Woodfork 45, Hutson 10, Shorty 8, with 25 percent undecided. UNO’s later survey found 33 percent undecided, confirming that a large segment of the electorate remains open.
Negative Ads Shake Up the New Orleans Sheriff Election
Political consultants call it “going negative.” It’s the art of attack advertising—harsh, emotional, and designed to knock a frontrunner off balance. Shorty’s negative campaign went straight at Woodfork’s record and reputation, but it didn’t help him much.
Instead, it helped Hutson. The pattern is familiar: the target loses ground, but the attacker rarely benefits. Voters who turn away from the frontrunner usually drift toward a more familiar name. In this case, that’s the incumbent sheriff.
Shorty spent his limited campaign funds to air televised and digital attack ads against Woodfork. Those spots made noise but cost him momentum. The backlash softened Woodfork’s numbers, while Hutson quietly picked up support.
Why Susan Hutson Could Survive to the Runoff
Mathematically, Woodfork still leads, but the path to an outright win is narrow. With one-third of voters still undecided, she would need to capture an unusually high share of late deciders to reach 50 percent.
Polls consistently show that undecided voters in New Orleans do not break uniformly for the leader. Some stay home, and others scatter among lower-tier candidates. Polls also tend to overcount enthusiastic supporters—people who say they’ll vote but never do.
Only if Woodfork wins 55% the undecided voters, that pushes her to a primary victory, but that assumes perfect execution. A modest turnout shift or polling error could easily drop her back into the mid-40s, forcing a November runoff.
Hutson’s Unexpected Lifeline
Susan Hutson’s campaign has faced heavy criticism over jail security and staffing, yet she’s proving politically durable. Her small but stable base of loyal voters gives her a foundation to build on.
By absorbing the indirect benefits of Shorty’s attacks, Hutson has reclaimed relevance. For an incumbent battered by controversy, that’s no small feat. She’s now positioned to survive the first round and make the runoff—a result that seemed impossible just weeks ago.
Related: Sheriffs Race Still a Fight to Win
The Likely Outcome: Runoff Ahead
Based on the current polling and undecided levels, the likely scenario is clear: Woodfork wins the first round but falls short of 50 percent. Hutson, boosted by negative advertising and late-breaking support, captures second place.
Woodfork remains favored long-term, but Hutson’s momentum makes this race competitive again. The Sheriff’s race in Orleans Parish has become the latest example of how attack politics—and the unpredictable ripple effects of “going negative”—can reshape an election.
Keywords: Orleans Parish Sheriff’s Race 2025, Michelle Woodfork, Susan Hutson, New Orleans Sheriff election, attack ads, runoff prediction