Kamala Harris has outraised and outspent Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election. However, the key question remains: can this fundraising lead to an electoral college victory?

The swing states—where both campaigns focus their efforts—hold the power to determine the winner. Fundraising gives an early glimpse into voter enthusiasm, but where contributions come from also matters. Harris’s financial edge can only result in electoral victory if it’s tied to support in the right states.

The Crucial Role of Swing States

Swing states are pivotal in every modern election. States like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona decide who wins. Candidates focus their resources on these states because the electoral college requires it. Raising more money helps a campaign, but only if it’s spent in places that matter.

Harris’s advantage in spending allows her to invest in ads, events, and outreach. But without a strong focus on swing states, this spending may not lead to victory.

Where Are Harris’s Donations Coming From?

Harris’s campaign receives large donations from Democratic strongholds like California, New York, and Illinois. These states have consistently supported Democrats in past elections. While this backing boosts her overall fundraising, it doesn’t necessarily indicate strong swing-state support.

On the other hand, Trump’s donations come largely from small-dollar contributions in battleground states. His grassroots fundraising shows strong voter enthusiasm in places that matter most. This support gives him an edge in critical states, even if he raises less money overall.

Harris has seen some donations from swing-state voters, particularly in suburbs around Detroit, Philadelphia, and Atlanta. However, these contributions aren’t as large as those from traditional Democratic states. The question is whether she can convert these small inroads into strong electoral support.

The Importance of the Electoral College

The popular vote does not decide the U.S. presidential election. A candidate must win at least 270 electoral votes to secure victory. Swing states control the largest blocks of these votes.

Harris’s national fundraising advantage can help her gain more exposure, but swing-state victories are critical. If she fails to spend effectively in places like Arizona and Georgia, her financial edge may not lead to success. Winning the electoral college requires focusing resources in the right areas.

Trump’s Strength in Swing States

Even though he is being outspent, Trump remains strongest in key battlegrounds. His base in states like Ohio, Arizona, and North Carolina remains loyal. Trump’s rallies, direct outreach, and grassroots support keep him competitive.

Harris must increase her efforts in these states to match Trump’s presence. Without strong voter outreach in swing states, her national spending may not convert into electoral success.

Will Fundraising Lead to Swing-State Wins?

Raising money is only the first step. For Harris to win, she must strategically direct those resources toward critical swing states. In fact, it looks like four states are really in play for Harris. Without focusing her spending in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia and Wisconsin, her fundraising advantage might fall short.

Harris needs to appeal to undecided voters in these battleground states. These voters care about issues like healthcare, jobs, immigration, and the economy. Harris must connect with them on these issues to shift the election in her favor.

Mobilizing Voters in Swing States

For Harris to win, her campaign must also focus on mobilizing voters in the states that will decide the election. Harris must register and get out the vote as many new voters as possible. Without strong voter turnout in these areas, her national fundraising success will not help her win.

On the other hand Trump has a strong base in those already registered. If anything, Trump’s campaign does not want newly registered voters. This is why Republicans make voting and access to voter registration more difficult. Also his grassroots donations and direct connection to voters give him a significant advantage. Harris must counter this by strengthening her presence in these battlegrounds.

Money vs. Voter Support

While Harris’s fundraising advantage signals strong national momentum, it’s unclear if it will lead to swing-state wins. Contributions from traditional Democratic states don’t always translate into victories in battlegrounds.

Harris is shifting resources toward critical states. But Trump’s grassroots support could win the electoral college. The outcome will depend on whether Harris can convert her financial success into votes in the right places. Victory lies in whether she can focus her resources on winning swing states.