The New Orleans municipal races are starting to pick up steam. Mailers are arriving, TV and radio ads are growing louder, and voters are beginning to pay closer attention. Multiple debates have already given residents a chance to hear directly from the candidates. Polls point in different directions, but we’re making our too-early predictions about how things may end up. Anything is still possible—bombshells and negative ads are only just beginning—but here are my thoughts on where the races stand today.

We take a quick look at each race, break down the field, and make early predictions. These are first reads—expect surprises.

Mayoral Race

Prediction
Runoff between Helena Moreno and Oliver Thomas. Push polling suggests Moreno can win in the primary, but Thomas’ name recognition and an undercounted base help him edge Royce Duplessis for second.

Forecasted Results (Primary):
– Moreno: ~43%
– Thomas: ~28%
– Duplessis: ~19%

Related: Will Someone Please Take Off the Gloves in the Mayor’s Race

Sheriff’s Race

Prediction
Michelle Woodfork dominates the field and comes close to clearing 50% in the primary, but finishes just under the threshold and heads to a runoff. Hutson holds onto a modest base, Shorty has some pockets of support, and Parker trails.

Forecasted Results (Primary):
– Woodfork: ~49.5%
– Hutson: ~13%
– Shorty: ~12%
– Parker: ~4%

Assessor

Prediction
Incumbent Erroll Williams easily cruises to victory with more than 60% of the vote.

Clerk of Criminal Court

Prediction
Upset: Calvin Duncan defeats incumbent Darren Lombard.

City Council At-Large – Division 1

Prediction
Matthew Willard continues the family tradition of public service and wins his first citywide race. Delisha Boyd runs strong but finishes second. Matt Hill trails.

Forecasted Results:
– Willard: ~53%
– Boyd: ~40%
– Hill: remainder

City Council At-Large – Division 2

Prediction
Shocker: Gregory Manning forces incumbent JP Morrell into a runoff. Morrell sees his Black support weaken while Kenneth Cutno falls short.

Forecasted Results (Primary):
– Morrell: ~40%
– Manning: ~22%
– Cutno: ~18%

City Council District A

Prediction
Runoff between Holly Friedman and Aimee McCarron, each taking around 31%. The remaining vote splits between Mossing, Murrell, and Neal.

City Council District C

Prediction
Freddie King III falls just shy of a majority at 47%. Kelsey Foster surprises with 28% and secures the runoff spot. This race breaks along familiar racial lines in District C—Black vs. White—and sets up a tight finish.

City Council District D

Prediction
Incumbent Eugene Green survives a strong challenge from Belden “Noonie Man” Batiste and narrowly wins outright with just over 50%. On election night, Noonie Man is gracious and congratulates Green despite coming close.

City Council District E

Prediction
Cyndi Nguyen finishes first with about 35%. Jason Hughes takes second with ~28% and secures the runoff spot. Willie Morgan leads the remaining field, but all others divide what’s left.

Takeaway

– Helena Moreno leads the mayor’s race but Oliver Thomas is stronger than polling suggests.
– Michelle Woodfork looks commanding in the sheriff’s contest but still faces a runoff.
– Several incumbents face real threats, signaling voter restlessness.
– In District E, Cyndi Nguyen remains the frontrunner, but Jason Hughes sets up a competitive runoff.

Keywords: New Orleans elections 2025, Helena Moreno, Oliver Thomas, Royce Duplessis, Michelle Woodfork, Cyndi Nguyen, Matthew Willard, JP Morrell