As the 2024 presidential election looms, America stands at a crossroads. The heated race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump promises to be a hard fought and consequential battle. The outcome may challenge the very foundations of our democratic process. If Trump wins the popular vote but loses the electoral vote, will he concede?
A Tale of Two Votes: Popular vs. Electoral
Recent polling data reveals that scenario is a real possibility. According to FiveThirtyEight, Trump leads Harris in the popular vote by a slim margin. However, the RealClearPolitics average suggests Harris could win through the Electoral College, mirroring the controversial outcomes of 2000 and 2016.
This potential split between the popular vote and the Electoral College result isn’t just a statistical oddity—it’s a powder keg ready to explode. The American electorate, still reeling from January 6th, 2021, faces the prospect of another deeply divisive election night.
Battleground America: The Swing State Showdown
The path to the White House runs through six key swing states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Michigan. Each battleground tells a unique story of American political realignment.
In Pennsylvania, the latest polls shows Harris with a slight edge, supported by strong backing in Philadelphia and its suburbs. The state’s diverse demographics and mix of urban and rural areas reflect the national political landscape.
Wisconsin, long considered a Democratic stronghold, has become increasingly competitive. Trump’s populist message resonates in rural areas, while Harris draws strength from Milwaukee and Madison.
Arizona, once a Republican bastion, has emerged as a true toss-up. The growing Latino population and shifting suburban allegiances have reshaped the state’s political landscape.
Georgia, the site of a dramatic Democratic upset in the 2020 Senate runoffs, remains on a knife’s edge. The Atlanta metro area’s explosive growth continues to transform the state’s political dynamics.
North Carolina presents a complex battlefield. Trump’s rural support remains solid, but Harris’s outreach to suburban and urban voters may tilt the balance. The Research Triangle and Charlotte, with their growing populations and changing demographics, could give Harris the edge in this traditionally Republican state. According to a WRAL News poll, Harris holds a slight lead among younger voters and women, key demographics in this swing state.
Michigan, another critical battleground, has seen a significant shift towards Democrats in recent years. The state’s diverse electorate, particularly in Detroit and its suburbs, provides a strong base for Harris. The labor unions, which played a crucial role in Biden’s 2020 victory, are expected to rally behind Harris as well. A Detroit Free Press poll shows Harris with a narrow lead, buoyed by strong support among African American voters and union members.
The Demographic Divide: Suburban Women and African Americans
Two key demographics could decide the election: suburban women and African American voters.
Suburban women, particularly in states like Pennsylvania and Georgia, have become a crucial swing constituency. Many who supported Trump in 2016 shifted to Biden in 2020, and their 2024 allegiances remain fluid. Harris’s campaign has made targeted outreach to this group a top priority, emphasizing healthcare and education.
African American voters, a cornerstone of the Democratic coalition, could be the key to Harris’s Electoral College strategy. High turnout in cities like Philadelphia, Milwaukee, and Atlanta could offset Trump’s strength in rural areas. Recent polling shows Harris with overwhelming support among African American voters, but turnout will be critical.
Trump will trounce Harris with the rural vote.
Election Night and Beyond: A Nation Holds Its Breath
As polls close on November 5th, 2024, the nation will be on edge. Early returns may show Trump leading in the popular vote, potentially prompting him to declare victory prematurely. However, as urban centers count votes and mail-in ballots are tallied, Harris could emerge as the Electoral College winner.
The hours and days following the election could be fraught with tension. Trump, true to form, could stoke this tension. As on January 6th, there are many disgruntled and motivated people who could erupt. Will Harris be able to stop the mobs? Biden? Only Trump. But will he?
The Aftermath: What If Trump Refuses to Concede?
If Trump refuses to concede despite the results showing a Harris victory in the Electoral College, the nation could face unprecedented turmoil. The possibility of widespread protests or violence cannot be ignored, especially given the deep divisions within the country.
Historically, when Black Americans are dissatisfied with political outcomes, they have tended to protest peacefully. For example, after the death of George Floyd, protests erupted across the country. Some Antifah groups created chaos, the broader response across the country was largely peaceful, with organized protests calling for justice. Similarly, the Black Lives Matter movement, which emerged after the killing of Trayvon Martin and gained momentum following the deaths of Michael Brown, Breonna Taylor, and Sonya Massey, has primarily focused on peaceful demonstrations, despite some isolated incidents of violence.
In stark contrast, when white Americans are unhappy with political results, the response has often turned violent. The insurrection on January 6th, 2021, is the most glaring example. Fueled by Trump’s false claims of a stolen election, thousands of his supporters stormed the Capitol in an attempt to overturn the election results. This violent uprising starkly contrasted the peaceful marches and rallies that have long characterized civil rights movements led by African Americans.
Should Trump refuse to accept defeat in 2024, the potential for a similar eruption of violence is real. His rhetoric could once again incite his followers to take drastic and dangerous actions. The nation could see clashes between different groups, with some taking to the streets to protest the perceived injustice, while others might resort to violence in an attempt to subvert the democratic process.
This looming threat underscores the fragility of American democracy. The peaceful transition of power, long a hallmark of the U.S. political system, could be at risk. The difference in how various groups respond to political dissatisfaction—peaceful protests by Black Americans versus violent actions by some white Americans—highlights the racial and ideological divides that continue to plague the nation.
As the election approaches, the country must brace for what could be a defining moment in its history. The resilience of democratic institutions and the commitment of the American people to uphold them will be put to the ultimate test.