If only they could play this game on paper. On paper, the Saints would whip the Chiefs, hands down, without a doubt. The stats don’t lie about it.

Offensively, the Saints are the number one scoring team in the league. They’re putting up 31.8 points a game. That’s a whole touchdown and 2pt conversion more than the Chiefs. The Chiefs sit as the 14th ranked scoring offense, averaging 23 points a game. And if you haven’t seen the Chiefs play this year, it’s been a hard 23.

Saints Look Better on Paper

On the ground, the Saints are racking up 148 yards. That’s 35 more than the 113 the Chiefs pound-out. That might not sound like a lot. But that 35 translates into an almost league leading 3rd down conversion rate. And it leaves a massive difference in time of possession between the two teams. The Saints rank 6th in time of possession. The Chiefs are way down at  21st.

Defensively, it gets a lil better for the Chiefs. Both teams give up 18 points a game. And they’re pretty much even as far as yards on the ground and passing. The Saints allow 97 yards rushing compared to the Chiefs’ 99. The Chiefs allow 228 through the air compared to the Saints’ 234.

The Saints have been way more opportunistic though. Through 4 games, they’ve forced 8 turnovers. The Chiefs have only forced 3. The majority of the Saints’ turnovers have come via interceptions. The secondary has picked off 6 passes.  

If the game was played on paper, you’d expect the game to play out like this: the Saints would wear the Chiefs’ defense down and force their offense into turnovers.

But unfortunately, the game is played on the field, and not on paper. On the field, the Chiefs have been the better team. They’re undefeated (4-0), while the Saints are 2-2.

On the field, Patrick Mahomes is a better QB than Derek Carr. And Andy Reid is an even better coach than Dennis Allen. So they have the primary matchups covered.

Related: Top Ten Linebackers in Saints History

Health is another area where the Chiefs have the advantage on the field. Yes, they’re missing their starting running back and number one wide receiver. But unlike the Saints, they aren’t decimated along the offensive line.

For the game, the Saints will be without starting center Eric McCoy. And they’ll be without the backup they just resigned to replace him. Right guard Caesar Ruiz is also out.  Left guard Lucas Patrick  is listed as questionable. So the Saints could potentially find themselves without 3 starters and a backup. Oh, and Taysum Hill isn’t playing either.

Besides health, the other big difference between these two teams is finishing games. The Chiefs have closed teams out while the Saints have not. On offense, the Chiefs have closed out the Bengals and Chargers. And their defense held off the Ravens, and stuffed the Falcons on a 4th and 1 to seal that game.

Meanwhile, the  Saints blew out the Panthers and Cowboys. But they gave up game winning drives to the Eagles and Falcons.

If only they could play this game on paper.

Big picture-wise, this game is way more important for the Saints. The Chiefs are 4-0 and have 3 of the past 5 Super Bowl banners hanging from their rafters. They can survive a loss. The Saints though will have a hard time bouncing back from another defeat after blowing the last 2 games..

Lose again, and they’ll be what they’ve mostly been since Deniis Allen took over.  And that’s a struggling team with a losing record looking for answers.

Expect that to happen. To go into Arrowhead and beat the Chiefs on the road just seems like a statement that Dennis Allen led teams don’t have in their wheelhouse to make.

Final prediction: Chiefs win 23-20

If only they could just play this game on paper.

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