By David Soublet, Sr.
The Popularity of NFL Betting
NFL football is the most popular team sport in America today. It surpassed baseball a couple of decades ago. Both men and women eagerly anticipate these contests each week. Many try to pick winners and place bets at casinos or via phone apps. I try to pick winners too. I look at various stats and indicators. And I even occasionally listen to the so-called football pundits on TV. It all sounds simple, but that’s part of the lure of betting.
The “Survivor” League
There is a “Survivor” league that 20 or so of my friends and relatives play in during the season. Each week, you select an NFL team that you think will defeat their opponent. If your team wins, you survive and advance to the next week’s games. If your team loses, you are out unless you purchased a mulligan (second chance) before the season starts. Those who purchased mulligans and picked incorrectly then have to select three winners in the following week to advance.
The Competition
Whoever is left standing is the survivor and wins the entire pot. The fee to play is $30, plus an additional $20 for a mulligan. Once you select a team to win in any particular week, you can no longer select the same team in any other game that season. This rule makes perfect sense. Otherwise, players would keep selecting Kansas City or a few other teams that win regularly.
Early Eliminations
For the second year in a row, I and many other players were eliminated very early in the 17-game season. After week three, 17 of 21 players were already eliminated! Many of the players are staunch sports fans, not just Saints or NFL fans. When the lowly Panthers beat the Raiders and Broncos beat the Bucs, both on the road, our league was whittled down to just four survivors. The upstart Redskins and Heisman Trophy-winning LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels’ road victory over the Bengals wiped out a few players too. This all happened in week three!
The Challenge of Picking Winners
Why is it so hard to pick a winner in one NFL game per week? The most common margin of victory in NFL games since 2015 is three points. No matter how much analysis you perform and what factors you weigh the heaviest, most contests will be very close. These survivor leagues don’t even force players to consider point spreads as more serious betting platforms like FanDuel and DraftKings do. Just pick a winner.
The Outcome of Our League
Our 2024 league ended in a four-way tie when those “survivors” were all eliminated after week four. Though no one really survived week four, the pot was split equally among the four players who lasted the longest. With so many games left to be played, most of the players have signed up to start the competition anew beginning week six. That’s when the Saints play the Buccaneers in the Dome. I think I’m going with the Bucs. Road teams seem to be doing well in this survivor’s league, and the Saints are in yet another decline.
Strategy for Success
Pick a visiting team to win. That’s the key. Hopefully, that strategy will work a lot further than three or so games. I’m eager to hear other strategies from those of you who pick “winners.”
I once heard that the only winning strategy is not to play.