All the qualifying is done. The fields are set. And now, New Orleans voters are heading into one of the most consequential elections in years.

With wide-open races for Mayor, Sheriff, At-Large Council Seats, and major showdowns in Districts A, C, D, and E, the political battleground is heating up fast. What happens next will define the city’s future—for better or worse.

Let’s break it down district by district, cut through the noise, and make it plain for the average voter. This is your guide to understanding who holds the power and where the race will be won.

📊 What History Tells Us About Turnout

This isn’t going to be a sleepy low-turnout election. It’s shaping up to look more like 2017, when nearly 40% of voters turned out for the mayor’s race, not 2021, when hurricanes and pandemic fatigue pushed turnout down to 28%.

This year? Expect high energy, high turnout, and high stakes.

🗺️ District-by-District Breakdown

District A – Swing District

Lakeview, Mid-City, and parts of the University area make this a politically fluid district. Gentrification and demographic shifts mean no candidate can take this area for granted. Turnout will matter more than party or race here. The right message could flip A blue, red, or purple.

District B – The Question Mark

District B includes Uptown, Central City, and parts of Milan. But here’s the twist: there’s no council race on the ballot. That means it lacks the usual local anchor to drive turnout. Will it show up for mayoral or at-large candidates? Or will it underperform and skew results? Candidates in other races would be smart to treat B like a wild card—and invest in it accordingly.

District C – Two Cities in One

District C is split between Algiers on the Westbank and the French Quarter on the Eastbank. It’s one of the most politically and racially divided areas in the city. Algiers is majority-Black and leans progressive; the Quarter leans conservative and high-turnout. Success in this district requires two campaigns in one. Expect a battle.

District D – The Bellwether

If you want to know who’s winning citywide, watch District D. This district includes Treme, Gentilly, parts of Mid-City, Fairgrounds and even part of New Orleans East. It is racially and economically diverse. Candidates who can win here are usually building the kind of multiracial coalition that leads to citywide victory. Watch Gentilly closely—it could tip the balance.

Related: Save NOLA Before It’s Too Late

District E – The Sleeping Giant

New Orleans East and Village de L’Est are often ignored in local media and campaign strategy—but that’s a mistake. This heavily Black district can drive turnout higher than any other, especially when candidates speak directly to its needs. Please don’t forget the Lower Ninth Ward. Rev. Willie L. Calhoun and his friends are a political power brokers. E’s a battleground now—and is fast becoming the new power base of the city.

🧭 Swing Districts & Battleground Zones

In presidential elections, we talk about swing states. In New Orleans, it’s all about swing districts and battleground precincts. Here’s how we classify them:

Explore it all in this interactive map

🗣️ Final Word: Black Voters Still Hold the Power

Despite all the spin, mailers, and big-money PACs, one truth remains: Black voters will decide this election. Not because someone said so, but because that what the numbers say in high turnout elections. The question is whether the Black community shows up with intention—or let political dealmakers define the future of New Orleans.

So let’s make it plain. High Black turnout determines who wins citywide. Every district. Every precinct. Yes every race. That’s the real math.