Economic & Political Analysis — Langston Price

Louisiana Redistricting After Callais: Will Black Voters in New Orleans and Baton Rouge Get the Memphis Treatment?

The Supreme Court just handed Louisiana Republicans a loaded weapon. Now the only question is how they plan to use it — and whether Black voters in New Orleans and Baton Rouge can survive the map that comes out of Baton Rouge next week.

By Langston Price  |  Black Source Media  |  Sunday, May 2026

Louisiana redistricting in 2026 is not a routine exercise. It is a political fight over whether Black communities in this state will have any real voice in Congress for the next decade.

Furthermore, the decision playing out in Baton Rouge right now will affect every Black voter in New Orleans and Baton Rouge. So let’s break it down clearly.

What the Supreme Court Actually Did in Louisiana v. Callais

On April 29, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in Louisiana v. Callais. The Court struck down the state’s congressional map. That map had created two majority-Black districts after years of organizing and litigation.

Justice Samuel Alito wrote the majority opinion. He argued that Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act did not require Louisiana to create a second majority-Black district. In other words, the state did not have to protect Black voters’ ability to elect their candidates of choice.

Justice Elena Kagan disagreed strongly. In her dissent, she wrote that the majority had made Section 2 “all but a dead letter.” That is the most important sentence in the entire ruling. It means the legal tool that Black voters used for decades to fight discriminatory maps is now largely gone.

As a result, Louisiana moved fast. Within 24 hours, Governor Landry suspended the state’s U.S. House primaries by executive order. The legislature then began drawing a new map. A process that had taken years of court battles was unwinding in days.

The Two Maps on the Table: 5-1 vs. 6-0

The legislature is weighing two options. Both would reduce Black political representation. However, they do so in very different ways — and with very different political risks for Republicans.

Why Baton Rouge Survives and New Orleans Does Not

The choice of which district survives is not politically neutral. In fact, it reflects a clear pattern of targeting New Orleans Black political power specifically.

Troy Carter represents New Orleans. He has clashed with Landry most openly and most often. By contrast, Cleo Fields represents Baton Rouge. He feuds with Landry far less frequently. To be precise, that does not make Fields a Landry ally — it makes him a less urgent political target.

As a result, the Senate redistricting committee — led by Republican Caleb Kleinpeter — has signaled the surviving district will center in Baton Rouge. That means Fields survives and Carter does not. The political logic operates beneath the technical language of redistricting hearings, but it is not difficult to read.

Moreover, Carter has pushed back hard. He issued a statement saying Louisiana deserves two seats where Black voters have a real say. The Louisiana Legislative Black Caucus said the same at a press conference. Hundreds of protesters filled the state capitol during hearings.

Despite all of that, the Republican supermajority has not changed direction.

Redistricting Is Not the Only Attack on New Orleans Black Political Power

To understand what is happening with congressional redistricting, you must see it as part of a larger pattern. The congressional map fight is not an isolated event. It is one front in a sustained campaign to reduce Black political power in New Orleans specifically.

Consider what has happened in the same legislative session. Under HB911, filed by Baton Rouge Republican Dixon McMakin, Orleans Parish courts would be consolidated and nine judgeships eliminated. The bill passed committee on a party-line vote. McMakin does not represent New Orleans. However, he is moving to reshape its judiciary.

Then there is the Calvin Duncan case. Duncan spent nearly 30 years wrongfully imprisoned before being exonerated. In November 2025, he won the Orleans Parish clerk of criminal court election with 68 percent of the vote. Rather than allow him to take office, the Republican-controlled legislature moved to eliminate the position entirely. Governor Landry signed the bill. The Senate sponsor, Jay Morris of West Monroe, acknowledged the bill was accelerated at the governor’s request — because otherwise the state would have to pay Duncan “for four years in a job that’s going to be eliminated.”

A federal judge briefly blocked the law and Duncan was sworn in on the steps of the courthouse. An appeals court then halted that ruling at the state’s request. The legal battle continues.

Therefore, the pattern is clear. Eliminate judgeships in New Orleans. Abolish an elected office the moment a Black reform candidate wins it. Remove the congressional district anchored in New Orleans while preserving the one in Baton Rouge. Each move, taken alone, carries its own official justification. Taken together, they describe a coordinated effort to reduce New Orleans Black community’s ability to govern itself and choose its own representatives.

The Memphis Playbook: Is This the New National Strategy?

What is happening in Louisiana is not an isolated event. Rather, it is part of a coordinated national strategy that Callais has now made possible in every state with a large Black urban population.

Tennessee moved first. Within days of the Callais ruling, Tennessee Republicans passed a new map that split Memphis into three congressional districts. The seat held by Rep. Steve Cohen — the state’s only majority-Black district — was carved into thirds. Each third was attached to rural, Republican-leaning geography stretching hundreds of miles east.

As a result, Memphis’ Black voters went from controlling one congressional seat to holding a minority share of three Republican-safe districts. Their voice in Congress was erased in a single legislative session.

This is the Memphis model: take a concentrated Black urban population, divide it among multiple districts, dilute its weight in each one, and call it partisan redistricting. The Supreme Court says that is constitutional now.

Louisiana is being asked to apply that same playbook to New Orleans. Break up the Black 2nd District. Spread New Orleans’ Black voters across surrounding Republican areas. Keep Baton Rouge as a concession. The outcome: Black Louisiana drops from two seats to one — or zero.

Furthermore, other states are watching closely. Alabama, South Carolina, and Mississippi are all calculating whether they can use the same approach before the 2026 elections lock in.

The Hidden Risk in the 6-0 Map That Republicans Underestimate

The case for the 5-1 map is not just about optics. It is also about basic political math that the most aggressive voices in Baton Rouge are glossing over.

Louisiana’s Black population is about 33 percent of the state. That population does not vanish when you draw six Republican districts. Instead, it gets distributed. And that distribution creates a real problem.

If Black Democratic voters spread unevenly across six districts, some of those districts become competitive rather than safe. Kleinpeter acknowledged this risk publicly. A badly drawn 6-0 map could deliver Trump four safe seats and two competitive ones — the opposite of what he wants.

Therefore, the 5-1 map is not a defeat for Republicans. It is the smarter play. Five guaranteed seats beats a gamble at six. The Trump wing wants maximum aggression. However, the pragmatic wing knows that a poorly drawn 6-0 could backfire badly.

This internal tension is driving the debate in Baton Rouge right now. Meanwhile the clock is running — a new map must be ready before the July 15 primary date Landry has set.

What Black Voters in New Orleans and Baton Rouge Need to Do Right Now

The redistricting process moves fast and mostly out of public view. However, there are concrete steps Black voters can take right now.

If you live in New Orleans: Your congressional district is the one being eliminated under the most likely scenario. Under a 5-1 map, your community will no longer have a majority-Black congressional district. Your vote will spread across surrounding Republican-leaning districts where it will not determine the outcome. This is a real and immediate reduction in your political power at the federal level.

If you live in Baton Rouge: Your district survives in the 5-1 scenario. However, the lines will be redrawn. How they are redrawn will determine whether the seat remains a genuine vehicle for Black political power or simply a concession on paper.

For both cities: The public comment period is the last formal window for input before the map is final. Churches, civic leagues, neighborhood associations, and HBCU communities should be mobilizing right now. Additionally, organizations like the NAACP Legal Defense Fund and Democracy Docket are tracking this litigation in real time. Follow them. Stay informed.

Finally, remember this: what is being done in Baton Rouge is legal under the Supreme Court’s ruling. But it is not accidental. It is engineered. And it will not stop in Louisiana if nobody pushes back.

The map is being drawn right now. Make noise before the ink dries — not after.