Well that was an ass whipping. There’s no way around it. Saturday night, Helena Moreno capped off her coronation with a dominating win for mayor. She took in 55% of the vote and won by a 33% margin. If this race was a boxing match, the ref would’ve stepped in and stopped the fight. From start to finish, Moreno won by tapping into voter frustration that neither Royce Duplessis nor Oliver Thomas ever fully embraced. More on that later. First, let’s look at some key aspects of the race.
Polling
The polls didn’t lie. Throughout the race there was all kinds of talk about selective polling and black people not being included. But in the end, the race played out just like the polls predicted — with a Moreno mandate.
Actually, Moreno outperformed the polls. The 55% share of the vote she took in was 4% more than the highest poll predicted. And her domination was city-wide. She even held her own in the East. Though she didn’t win many precincts in the East, she chipped away enough votes to mute any advantage Oliver Thomas or Royce Duplessis may have had.
During the campaign, Thomas and Duplessis either scoffed at the polls or dismissed them as mere snapshots in time. Maybe it would’ve been better to use them to create a sense of urgency among voters.
Social Media
While there’s been a lot of attention devoted to the influencer wars, what’s overlooked is the way Moreno used social media (Instagram) to talk directly to voters. Every Sunday she’d hit the streets and take voters on a walk, just her and her phone. The topics would range but the presentation wouldn’t. Voters got to see her as just another citizen feeling the same frustrations they had. It was humanizing.
Thomas and Duplessis, on the other hand, mainly used social media to communicate campaign style through ads. That was a misstep for Duplessis, who wasn’t as well-known throughout the city.
The titanic Teedy in the room
Lets be real, Mayor Cantrell has left this city a hot ass mess. Though some black people endeared themselves to her after the recall, polling has shown that she is not popular. For some reason, Thomas and Duplessis did not tap into that frustration.
Thomas tried centering his campaign around giving more black people a seat at the table, or a table of their own. Duplessis tried spreading blame equally among the mayor and City Council, casting himself as the great mediator. But that wasn’t keeping it real with voters.
Voters were mad. Voters were frustrated. And by tap dancing around Teedy, they let Moreno cast herself as the candidate of change; and that’s ultimately what voters wanted.
JP Morrell
He won, despite a strong showing from Pastor Gregory Manning. Look for Morrell to further the Moreno mandate. With him at the helm, Moreno will have a sympathetic Council that won’t reflexively oppose her agenda. But with that will come much power and much pressure. They’ll be no excuses, no coulda woulda shouldas. We’ll see how that goes.
For now though, all hail Helena. She has changed the guard.
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